You could get a sense of it from looking at the competitors trajectories – the trade wind, never totally steady at the best of times, has been ruffled by stormy squalls, which are causing significant variations in the wind, both in terms of strength and direction.
Together with the fatigue, any errors in judgement or manoeuvring can prove costly.
“Tell me about the rain, not the fair weather, the fair weather disgusts me,” sang French singer-songwriter Georges Brassens, but it is not certain that these particular lyrics would win much acclaim in this last third of the Atlantic.
Indeed, the stormy squalls, which are beginning to set the tone, in addition to a need for increased vigilance, are likely to complete shake up the trade wind system, until it is virtually on its knees as the fleet approach the Antilles arc.
For now, the feedback from the support boats is indicating white squalls, still without any really striking cloud formations, but which may cause the wind to pick up violently to nearly 30 knots, whilst turning through 30 to 40 degrees.
Naturally, in such conditions, there are sure to be a number of broaches, as indicated by a significant lull in boat speed as the skipper takes the time to digest recent events. Is this what has happened to Elodie Pedron?
The skipper of Manu Poki et les Biotechs has just spent several hours with the boat at a virtual standstill, clearly the victim of some sort of technical issue, which was sufficiently crippling that her friend Marta Guemes (Artelia) diverted course in a bid to sail alongside her.
Since that time, Elodie has begun making headway again, albeit at a reduced speed. A support boat should be heading over to her tonight to find out more, but it’s not an impossible scenario that her mission to jury rig the rudders before the Cape Verde islands has given up the ghost.
Anyone’s game once more?
At the head of the race, Ian Lipinski (Griffon.fr) will be able to begin to feel like he has the race in the bag now. Indeed, some 150 miles ahead of his rivals and less than 1,000 miles from the finish, he is starting to boast a comfortable lead.
However, it’s a close race for second place between Simon Koster (Eight Cube Sersa) and Jorg Riechers (Lilienthal), who are just a tenth of a mile apart in terms of the distance to the goal. Will Jorg be paid for his audacity after choosing a radical southerly option? You will get a response in 24 hours’ time.
Another sailor with plenty of pluck is Tanguy Bouroullec (Kerhis Cerfrance), who has amassed nearly 300 miles of lateral separation to the south of the chasing pack and over 400 in relation to the inseparable top two,
Erwan Le Draoulec (Emile Henry) and Clarisse Cramer (TBS). In fact, it is the first time since negotiating the Cape Verde islands that the routes of the two leaders have diverged. Consequently, anything is possible. I
n 2015, Ian Lipinski and Julien Pulva sailed in convoy up to five days from the finish at which point the sailor from La Rochelle managed to slip away. Ultimately, Julien won the leg by a comfortable margin, causing the announced victory of Ian Lipinski to wobble.
Given the conditions that the solo sailors are set to encounter in the coming days, the craziest scenarios could become a reality.
Among the production boats, there is so little separating them that nobody would be so bold as to call a winner. It is an important psychological boost to see a three-figure distance being displayed on the GPS.
However, it would perhaps be better to cast such thoughts to one side for now, especially given the weather conditions expected. Thinking about it, Brassens has some funny ideas at times.
Position report on 10 November at 15:00 UTC
1 Ian Lipinski (Griffon.fr) 794.4 miles from the finish
2 Simon Koster (Eight Cube Sersa) 149.7 miles behind the leader
3 Jorg Riechers (Lilienthal) 149.8 miles behind the leader
4 Andrea Fornaro (Sideral) 223.6 miles behind the leader
5 Keni Piperol (Region Guadeloupe) 257.7 miles behind the leader
1 Erwan Le Draoulec (Emile Henry) 1,035.3 miles from the finish
2 Clarisse Cramer (TBS) 51.3 miles behind the leader
3 Tom Dolan (offshoresailing.fr) 94.1 miles behind the leader
4 Benoit Sineau (Cachaca 2) 107.5 miles behind the leader
5 Pierre Chedeville (Blue Orange Games Fair Retail) 131.5 miles behind the leader