Ultims – Taking a view on ETAs

All five skippers in the ARKEA ULTIM CHALLENGE-Brest have an ETA on their agenda. After passing Cape Horn yesterday evening, routings and dynamic weather models are being examined closely to predict when, all things remaining equal, the Maxi Edmond Rothschild might finish back in Brest. And correspondingly calculations and predictions for EPT – Estimated Passage Times – are being computed.

The data, corroborated by the various routing cells give some kind of indication of what might be expected. The most imminent ETA is for the passage of fourth placed Anthony Marchand. With 380 miles to sail to the longitude of South East Cape, Tasmania, Marchand should sail Actual Ultim 3 into the Pacific tomorrow, Thursday morning UTC.

In fifth is Éric Péron, who is currently diving due south to position himself at the front of a depression which will probably take him to Cape Leeuwin this Friday, February 9 in the morning UTC. This Wednesday evening Péron on Adagio is nearly 800 miles from the Pacific.

In second Armel Le Cléac’h has 2,300 miles from his fourth passage of Cape Horn – his first on a Multihull. He should be able to maintain good averages, close to 800 miles per 24 hours, which would allow him to leave the Pacific Ocean for the South Atlantic on Sunday morning . Four hundred miles behind him Thomas Coville should pass Cape Horn again, this time during the night from Sunday to Monday.

And looking to a projected ETA, a possible finish date for Charles Caudrelier it’s a longterm view. The weather files are not sufficiently precise over a 14 day period to give anything more than a two day window, but at the moment it looks like Friday February 23 or Saturday February 24.

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